World Library  
Flag as Inappropriate
Email this Article

Cliodynamics

Article Id: WHEBN0020155525
Reproduction Date:

Title: Cliodynamics  
Author: World Heritage Encyclopedia
Language: English
Subject: List of Russian scientists, List of Russian people, Peter Turchin, List of historians, Goldilocks Process
Collection:
Publisher: World Heritage Encyclopedia
Publication
Date:
 

Cliodynamics

Cliodynamics (etymologically from Clio, one of the nine muses (that of history), and dynamics (the study of temporally varying processes)) is a multidisciplinary area of research focused at mathematical modeling of historical dynamics.[1]

Origins

The term was originally coined by Peter Turchin in 2003, and can be traced to the work of such figures as Ibn Khaldun, Jack Goldstone, Sergey Kapitsa, Randall Collins, Peter Turchin, John Komlos, Sergey Nefedov and Andrey Korotayev.

Mathematical modeling of historical dynamics

Many historical processes are dynamic (a dynamic process is one that changes with time). Populations increase and decline, economies expand and contract, while states grow and collapse. A very common approach, which has proved its worth in innumerable applications (particularly, but not exclusively, in the natural sciences), consists of taking a holistic phenomenon and mentally splitting it up into separate parts that are assumed to interact with each other. This is the dynamical systems approach, because the whole phenomenon is represented as a system consisting of several interacting elements (or subsystems). In the dynamical systems approach, one must describe mathematically how different subsystems interact with each other. This mathematical description is the model of the system, and one can use a variety of methods to study the dynamics predicted by the model, as well as attempt to test the model by comparing its predictions with the observed dynamics. This is the approach that the cliodynamics suggests to apply to the study of historical dynamics.

Isaac Asimov employed a fictional version of this discipline, called psychohistory, as a major plot device in his Foundation series of science fiction novels.

Cliodynamics practitioners attempt to come to with mathematical models of history to explain “big history” – things like the rise of empires, social discontent, civil wars, and state collapse.

Achievements

As of 2012 the main achievements in Cliodynamics are:

  • structural-demographic models of the Modern Age revolutions, including the Arab revolutions of 2011.[5]

Cliodynamics: The Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History

Cliodynamics: The Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History is a peer-reviewed web-based (free-access) journal that publishes both empirical and modeling articles. The first issue was published in November 2010.

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Peter Turchin (3 July 2008)Nature, 2008 Arise cliodynamics
  2. ^ Turchin P. 2003. Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press; Turchin P. 2005. War and Peace and War. Plume; Turchin P. 2009. A theory for formation of large states. Journal of Global History 4:191-217. Turchin P. 2011. Warfare and the Evolution of Social Complexity: A Multilevel-Selection Approach. Structure and Dynamics 4(3(1)):1-37
  3. ^ Goldstone J. 1991. Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World. Berkeley, California: University of California Press; Turchin P. 2003. Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press; Turchin P. 2005. War and Peace and War. Plume; Turchin P., Nefedov S. 2009. Secular Cycles. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press; Korotayev, A., Malkov, A., & Khaltourina, D. 2006b. Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends. Moscow: URSS. ISBN 5-484-00559-0; Korotayev, A. & Khaltourina D. 2006 Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends in Africa./index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=165&Itemid=70 Moscow: URSS. ISBN 5-484-00560-4.
  4. ^ Tsirel, S. V. 2004. On the Possible Reasons for the Hyperexponential Growth of the Earth Population. Mathematical Modeling of Social and Economic Dynamics / Ed. by M. G. Dmitriev and A. P. Petrov, pp. 367–9. Moscow: Russian State Social University, 2004; Korotayev A., Malkov A., Khaltourina D. 2006. Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth. Moscow: URSS. ISBN 5-484-00414-4; Andrey Korotayev. The World System urbanization dynamics. History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies. Edited by Peter Turchin, Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev, and Victor C. de Munck. Moscow: KomKniga, 2006. ISBN 5-484-01002-0. P. 44-62 etc.
  5. ^ Korotayev A., Zinkina J. 13 (2011): 139-169.Entelequia. Revista InterdisciplinarEgyptian Revolution: A Demographic Structural Analysis.

Bibliography

  • Goldstone J. 1991. Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World. Berkeley, California: University of California Press.
  • Komlos J., Nefedov S. 2002. Compact Macromodel of Pre-Industrial Population Growth. Historical Methods. (35): 92–94.
  • Korotayev A., Malkov A., Khaltourina D. 2006a. Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth. Moscow: URSS. ISBN 5-484-00414-4.
  • Korotayev, A., Malkov, A., & Khaltourina, D. 2006b. Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends. Moscow: URSS. ISBN 5-484-00559-0
  • Korotayev, A. & Khaltourina D. 2006 Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends in Africa. Moscow: URSS. ISBN 5-484-00560-4
  • Korotayev A., Zinkina J. 13 (2011): 139-165.Entelequia. Revista InterdisciplinarEgyptian Revolution: A Demographic Structural Analysis.
  • Korotayev A. et al., 2/2 (2011): 1-28CliodynamicsA Trap At The Escape From The Trap? Demographic-Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modern Africa and West Asia. .
  • Turchin P. 2003. Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Turchin P. 2005. War and Peace and War. Plume
  • Turchin P. 2009. A theory for formation of large states. Journal of Global History 4:191-217.
  • Turchin P. 2011. Warfare and the Evolution of Social Complexity: A Multilevel-Selection Approach. Structure and Dynamics 4(3(1)):1-37
  • Turchin P. 2006. Population Dynamics and Internal Warfare: A Reconsideration. Social Evolution & History 5(2): 112–147 (with Andrey Korotayev).
  • Turchin P. et al., eds. 2007. History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies. Moscow: KomKniga. ISBN 5-484-01002-0
  • Turchin P., Nefedov S. 2009. Secular Cycles. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

External links

  • Peter Turchin's Cliodynamics Page
  • Arise Cliodynamics
  • Why do we need mathematical models of historical processes?
  • Historical Dynamics in a time of Crisis: Late Byzantium, 1204-1453 (a discussion of some concepts of cliodynamics from the point of view of medieval studies)
  • "Nature" article (August 2012): Human cycles: History as science
  • Social Evolution Forum
  • Clio's Psyche, a scholarly journal founded in 1994 and published by the Psychohistory Forum
This article was sourced from Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License; additional terms may apply. World Heritage Encyclopedia content is assembled from numerous content providers, Open Access Publishing, and in compliance with The Fair Access to Science and Technology Research Act (FASTR), Wikimedia Foundation, Inc., Public Library of Science, The Encyclopedia of Life, Open Book Publishers (OBP), PubMed, U.S. National Library of Medicine, National Center for Biotechnology Information, U.S. National Library of Medicine, National Institutes of Health (NIH), U.S. Department of Health & Human Services, and USA.gov, which sources content from all federal, state, local, tribal, and territorial government publication portals (.gov, .mil, .edu). Funding for USA.gov and content contributors is made possible from the U.S. Congress, E-Government Act of 2002.
 
Crowd sourced content that is contributed to World Heritage Encyclopedia is peer reviewed and edited by our editorial staff to ensure quality scholarly research articles.
 
By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. World Heritage Encyclopedia™ is a registered trademark of the World Public Library Association, a non-profit organization.
 



Copyright © World Library Foundation. All rights reserved. eBooks from World eBook Library are sponsored by the World Library Foundation,
a 501c(4) Member's Support Non-Profit Organization, and is NOT affiliated with any governmental agency or department.