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Verification of the Bolam Weather Prediction Model Over the Area of Cyprus : Volume 23, Issue 23 (04/10/2010)

By Savvidou, K.

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Book Id: WPLBN0003998915
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 8
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Verification of the Bolam Weather Prediction Model Over the Area of Cyprus : Volume 23, Issue 23 (04/10/2010)  
Author: Savvidou, K.
Volume: Vol. 23, Issue 23
Language: English
Subject: Science, Advances, Geosciences
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection, Copernicus GmbH
Historic
Publication Date:
2010
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications

Citation

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Lagouvardos, K., Kotroni, V., Michaelides, S., Constantinides, P., & Savvidou, K. (2010). Verification of the Bolam Weather Prediction Model Over the Area of Cyprus : Volume 23, Issue 23 (04/10/2010). Retrieved from http://ebook2.worldlibrary.net/


Description
Description: Meteorological Service, Nicosia, Cyprus. The purpose of this study is the verification of the BOLAM weather prediction model over the area of Cyprus. The verification period spans from 1 January 2007 till 31 December 2007 and the parameters studied are: temperature, wind and precipitation. The model forecasts are compared to the observations recorded at three locations on the island, where Automatic Weather Observing Systems are operated by the Meteorological Service of Cyprus, namely, those of Larnaka and Paphos Airports and at Athalassa. The statistical analysis includes calculation of the mean error, the mean absolute error and the standard deviation. Based on the construction of a contingency table, the probability of detection of a precipitation event and the false alarm rate are calculated. Finally, an example of BOLAM forecasts for a case study of a low pressure affecting Cyprus during winter is presented and discussed.

Summary
Verification of the BOLAM weather prediction model over the area of Cyprus

Excerpt
Buzzi, A., Fantini, M., Malguzzi, P., and Nerozzi, F.: Validation of a limited area model in cases of Mediterranean cyclogenesis: surface fields and precipitation scores, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 53, 137–153, 1994.; Buzzi, A., Cadelli, R., and Malguzzi, P.: Low level jet simulation over the Antarctic ocean, Tellus~A, 49, 263–276, 1997.; Buzzi, A., Tartaglione, N., and Malguzzi, P.: Numerical simulations of the 1994 Piedmont flood: role of orography and moist processes, Mon. Weather Rev., 126, 2369–2383, 1998.; Buzzi, A. and Foschini, L.: Mesoscale meteorological features associated with heavy precipitation in the southern Alpine region, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 72, 131–146, 2000.; Kain, J. S. and Fritsch, J. M.: Convective parameterization for mesoscale models: The Kain-Fritsch scheme, The Representation of Cumulus in numerical models, Meteor. Monogr., No~46, Am. Meteororl. Soc., 165–177, 1993.; Lagouvardos, K., Kotroni, V., Koussis, A., Feidas, C., Buzzi, A., and Malguzzi, P.: The meteorological model BOLAM at the National Observatory of Athens: assessment of two-year operational use, J. Appl. Meteorol., 42, 1667–1678, 2003.; Orphanou, A., Michaelides, S., Savvidou, K., Constantinides, P., Schulz, J.-P., and Voigt, U.: Preliminary verification results of the DWD limited area model LME and evaluation of its storm forecast skill over the area of Cyprus, Adv. Geosci., 7, 169–174, 2006.; Schultz, P.: An explicit cloud physics parameterization for operational numerical weather prediction, Mon. Weather Rev., 123, 3331–3343, 1995.; Spencer, P. L. and Stensrud, D. J.: Flash flood events: importance of the subgrid representation of convection, Mon. Weather Rev., 126, 2884–2912, 1998.


 

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