World Library  

Add to Book Shelf
Flag as Inappropriate
Email this Book

Do Gcms Predict the Climate ... or MacRoweather? : Volume 4, Issue 2 (28/11/2013)

By Lovejoy, S.

Click here to view

Book Id: WPLBN0004007209
Format Type: PDF Article :
File Size: Pages 16
Reproduction Date: 2015

Title: Do Gcms Predict the Climate ... or MacRoweather? : Volume 4, Issue 2 (28/11/2013)  
Author: Lovejoy, S.
Volume: Vol. 4, Issue 2
Language: English
Subject: Science, Earth, System
Collections: Periodicals: Journal and Magazine Collection (Contemporary), Copernicus GmbH
Publication Date:
Publisher: Copernicus Gmbh, Göttingen, Germany
Member Page: Copernicus Publications


APA MLA Chicago

Schertzer, D., Varon, D., & Lovejoy, S. (2013). Do Gcms Predict the Climate ... or MacRoweather? : Volume 4, Issue 2 (28/11/2013). Retrieved from

Description: Physics, McGill University, 3600 University St., Montreal, Quebec, Canada. We are used to the weather–climate dichotomy, yet the great majority of the spectral variance of atmospheric fields is in the continuous background and this defines instead a trichotomy with a macroweather regime in the intermediate range from ≈10 days to 10–30 yr (≈100 yr in the preindustrial period). In the weather, macroweather and climate regimes, exponents characterize the type of variability over the entire regime and it is natural to identify them with qualitatively different synergies of nonlinear dynamical mechanisms that repeat scale after scale. Since climate models are essentially meteorological models (although with extra couplings) it is thus important to determine whether they currently model all three regimes. Using last millennium simulations from four GCMs (global circulation models), we show that control runs only reproduce macroweather. When various (reconstructed) climate forcings are included, in the recent (industrial) period they show global fluctuations strongly increasing at scales > ≈10–30 yr, which is quite close to the observations. However, in the preindustrial period we find that the multicentennial variabilities are too weak and by analysing the scale dependence of solar and volcanic forcings, we argue that these forcings are unlikely to be sufficiently strong to account for the multicentennial and longer-scale temperature variability. A likely explanation is that the models lack important slow climate processes such as land ice or various biogeochemical processes.

Do GCMs predict the climate ... or macroweather?

Bryson, R. A.: The Paradigm of Climatology: An Essay, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 450–456, 2007.; Blender, R., Fraedrich, K., and Hunt, B.: Millennial climate variability: GCM-simulation and Greenland ice cores, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L04710, doi:10.1029/2005GL024919, 2006.; Compo, G. P., Whitaker, J. S., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Matsui, N., Allan, R. J., Yin, X., Gleason, B. E., Vose, R. S., Rutledge, G., Bessemoulin, P., Brönnimann, S., Brunet, M., Crouthamel, R. I., Grant, A. N., Groisman, P. Y., Jones, P. D., Kruger, A. C., Kruk, M., Marshall, G. J., Maugeri, M., Mok, H. Y., Nordli, Ø., Ross, T. F., Trigo, R. M., Wang, X. L., Woodruff, S. D., and Worley, S. J.: The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 1–28, doi:10.1002/qj.776, 2011.; Crowley, T. J.: Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years, Science, 289, 270–273, doi:10.1126/science.289.5477.270, 2000.; Crowley, T. J., Zielinski, G., Vinther, B., Udisti, R., Kreutzs, K., Cole-Dai, J., and Castellano, E.: Volcanism and the Little Ice Age, PAGES Newslett., 16, 22–23, 2008.; Eichner, J. F., Koscielny-Bunde, E., Bunde, A., Havlin, S., and Schellnhuber, H.-J.: Power-law persistance and trends in the atmosphere: A detailed studey of long temperature records, Phys. Rev. E, 68, 046133-40, doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.68.046133, 2003.; Fichefet, T. and Morales Maqueda, M. A.: Sensitivity of a global sea ice model to the treatment of ice thermodynamics and dynamics, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 12609–12646, 1997.; Fraedrich, K. and Blender, K.: Scaling of Atmosphere and Ocean Temperature Correlations in Observations and Climate Models, Phys. Rev. Lett., 90, 108501–108504, 2003.; Fraedrich, K., Blender, R., and Zhu, X.: Continuum Climate Variability: Long-Term Memory, Scaling, and 1/f-Noise, Int. J. Modern Phys. B, 23, 5403–5416, 2009.; Krivova, N. A. and Solanki, S. K.: Models of Solar Irradiance Variations: Current Status, J. Astrophys. Aston., 29, 151–158, 2008.; Franzke, C.: Long-range dependence and climate noise characteristics of Antarctica temperature data, J. Climate, 23, 6074–6081, doi:10.1175/2010JCL13654.1, 2010.; Franzke, C.: Nonlinear trends, long-range dependence and climate noise properties of temperature, J. Climate, 25, 4172–4183, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00293.1, 2012.; Franzke, J., Esper, J., and Brönnimann, S.: Spectral biases in tree-ring climate proxies, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 360–364, doi:10.1038/Nclimate1816, 2013.; Gao, C. G., Robock, A., and Ammann, C.: Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: and improved ice core-based index for climate models, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D23111, doi:10.1029/2008JD010239, 2008.; Hourdin, F., Musat, I., Bony, S., Braconnot, P., Codron, F., Dufresne, J.-L., Fairhead, L., Filiberti, M.-A., Friedlingstein, P., Grandpeix, J.-Y., Krinner, G., LeVan, P., Li, Z.-X., and Lott, F.: The LMDZ4 general circulation model: climate performance and sensitivity to parametrized physics with emphasis on tropical convection, Clim. Dynam., 27, 787–813, doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0158-0, 2006.; Huang, S. P., Pollack, H. N., and Shen, P.-Y.: Temperature trends over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures, Nature, 403, 756–758, 2000.; Huybers, P. and Curry, W.: Links between annual, Milankovitch and continuum temperature variability, Nature, 441, 329–332, doi:10.1038/nat


Click To View

Additional Books

  • Quantifying Uncertainties in Soil Carbon... (by )
  • Arctic Ocean Data in Carina : Volume 2, ... (by )
  • A Vertically Resolved, Global, Gap-free ... (by )
  • Global Distribution of Pteropods Represe... (by )
  • Two Weather Radar Time Series of the Alt... (by )
  • A Lower and More Constrained Estimate of... (by )
  • No Way Out? the Double-bind in Seeking G... (by )
  • Spatio-temporal Analysis of the Urban–ru... (by )
  • Spatio-temporal Analysis of the Urban-ru... (by )
  • Distribution of Mesozooplankton Biomass ... (by )
  • The Sensitivity of the Energy Budget and... (by )
  • Soil Temperature Response to 21St Centur... (by )
Scroll Left
Scroll Right


Copyright © World Library Foundation. All rights reserved. eBooks from World eBook Library are sponsored by the World Library Foundation,
a 501c(4) Member's Support Non-Profit Organization, and is NOT affiliated with any governmental agency or department.